Climate Variability and Change and the Management of Water-Related Disaster Risks

Climate Variability and Change and the Management of Water-Related Disaster Risks
November, 2002
Bangkok, Thailand

Organizer David Jezeph, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

The effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life and relative effects on investment and the economy," said the report released in Geneva. Changing rainfall patterns coupled with population growth would lead to huge pressure on water supplies, it predicted. The report said that at present 1.7 billion people live in areas where water resources are tight. This was likely to increase to about 5.4 billion over the next 25 years. It said a reduction in crop yields would lead to an increase in malnutrition in vulnerable areas -- especially in drought-prone parts of Africa. Even more serious was the risk from rising sea levels in densely populated coastal areas ranging from Egypt to Poland to Vietnam "The most widespread direct risk to human settlements is flooding and landslides."

Predictions for Asia:
High temperatures, drought, floods and soil degradation likely will diminish food production in arid and tropical parts of Asia. Northern areas may see an increase in productivity. Rises in the sea level and more intense tropical cyclones likely will displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia.

Predictions for Small Island States:
A projected sea level rise of two tenths of an inch per year for the next 100 years will increase coastal erosion, damage to ecosystems, loss of land and dislocation of people. Coral reefs will be damaged and fisheries harmed. Tourism -- an important source of income -- likely will face severe disruption from climate change and sea level rise.

IDRM, in cooperation with ESCAP, will conduct a series of conferences that will discuss specific concerns on water related disaster risks generated by climate change and variability, and their effects on key sectors such as Agriculture and Food Security, Population and Health, Environment and Natural Resources, and Industry and Economy. 3 case studies will be prepared in advance of the conference; Conferences will also expand into environmental disaster risks in the follow up phase. The first conference is planned for November 2002.